The HP 5 odds thread

[angleet]

You asked for it, you got it. It's the official CoE HP odds thread. I will update this first post with the current odds. Here are my first, totally unscientific odds

Odds on who will die in OotP

Hagrid 50:1 in favor
Mrs. Weasley 2:1 in favor
Lupin 2:1 against
Sirius 3:1 against
Dumbledore 5:1 against
Snape 10:1 against
Ron 15:1 against
Hermione 20:1 against
Harry 2000:1 against


What this means:

If you bet 100 Galleons that Lupin will die and he does, you will double your money (200 Galleons). If you bet 100 Galleons that Hagrid will die and he does, you will only get 1 1/2 times your money (150 Galleons). If you bet that Harry will die, and he does, 2000 times your money (200,000 Galleons)!

Same goes for the reverse. If you bet that Hagrid will live and he does, you double your money. If you bet that Harry will live, and someone is foolish enough to take your bet, you get 1 1/2000th money back.

Current active bets
Ravenclaw bets 1000 'cookie points' that Hagrid will live

Coming up: Odds on who will pair up with whom

[Xazinon]

LOL, can I go for the trifecta? ;)

[Ravenclaw]

I bet 1000 cookie points (*cough*) I mean, Galleons, that Hagrid will live.

In the meantime, I bet... Not sure... Scared to lose cookie points, er... I don't really place me bet on any of them. I guess I'll bet that Lupin lives too.

Watch Harry die. Than we're all losers. ;)

[Colli]

Are we all making our own predictions? Do we just put a certain amount of money on whether we're for or against? Do we get to keep the money? :evil: Maybe have a "winner" when we find out? Is there a ceiling on how much we can bet per person? I don't gamble (;)).. how does this work?

[Fleurdelacour]

Ever since I turned sixteen, I've been entering the lottery (not win mind you...)

Mmm... I havent decided yet... Wait until I see more evidence... Mmmm.... I betted on Brazil winning the world cup with my dad, so I might be right this time round! ;)

[angleet]

I think if you bet in general, as ravenclaw did, then you are betting against 'the house', which in this case would have to be me.

Ravenclaw, the house accepts your bet.

Others can make 'side bets' personally.

I'll update them in the first post :)

[Colli]

Um... ok then.

I bet the House 200 galleons that Lupin snuffs it.

My own personal predictions...

Hagrid 50:1 in favor
Mrs Weasley 2:1 in favor
Lupin: 10:1 in favor
Sirius: 5:1 against
Dumbledore: 500:1 against
Snape: 1000:1 against
Ron: 5000:1 against
Hermione: 5000:1 against
Harry: 5000:1 against

[angleet]

I think I agree with some of Colli's ideas, but I definately do NOT think that Harry is equal to Ron and Hermione. Ok, she's SAID that they are safe, but really, what is the title of the 6th book if Harry dies in book 5?

I think I will update Hagrid and Mrs Weasley - as I think you are right. But Lupin in favor? I don't see it.

[Colli]

:) The only reason I did that, angleet, is because I feel for sure that Ron, Harry, and Hermione will live through book 5 therefore I probably could have put any huge number in there. I just decided to use 5000 as a ceiling. For me, 5000:1 is "not a chance of happening". I could have put 9,000,000:1... but that could just get ridiculous. ;)

[Terry]

OK Angleet, since I bet you money on another thread.... I'm game. I don't really know how this works, but.... I bet 200 galleons that Mrs. Weasley survivies book V and 500 galleons that Hagrid survives. I know I'm betting against the house, right? My fav person to snuff it is not on anyone's list. What can I do about him/her?Ooo, this is going to be fun!

[angleet]

I'll take those bets

Who isn't on the list? Just let me know and I will add them in.

I don't really know how this works either, I am just winging it :eek: :D

[Terry]

I'm betting 2:1 that Cho snuffs it. After a romantic attachment to HP. More to encourage him on to Kick Voldy's ass (whoops, that was PG, sorry).

Ah, and 2:1 that Hedwig buys it too!

[Elfëa]

I'll put 1,000 on Hagrid and 5,000 on Colin dying. And I know I'll lose that money.

and I put 1,000,000 for Hermione and Ron coupling up in the book. :D

I have no idea about odds tho. I probably lose all the money, even if I'd win.

[glaelia]

urm... elfea... you win the lottery cos last i heard you had 300 euros... and i don't think the exchange rate is that good ! ;) ;)

[Elfëa]

Nah, I'm playing with Leprechan gold :p

[glaelia]

only 40 mins to holyhead on the bus, then an hour on the ferry to get to dublin.... that could work out well for you ;)

[Elfëa]

Hah :p

I have it here :p We have Irish girl on our corridor ;)

[ChianaWeasley]

I'll bet a chunk sum that Ron and Hermione dont become a couple in book five, but in book six. Let's see.....I'll also bet a large amount that Harry doesn't die in book five. If he were to die in book five, well...isnt that the end of the whole series?

personal note: I do hope Ron and hermione get together in book five, but I have this nagging feeling that they wont just yet.
:p Ron and Hermione get together in book six, not book five: : 16,000

Harry doesn't die in book five: 100,000

[Fleurdelacour]

Originally posted by glaelia
only 40 mins to holyhead on the bus, then an hour on the ferry to get to dublin.... that could work out well for you ;)

Its either four hours on the ferry if you get the slow one, or 90 mins if you get the fast one :p I've done the drive from London to Holyhead enough times in my life... :mad:

Still haven't made up my mind on who dies yet... Oh god... Mmmm...

[glaelia]

gah... so i fell asleep fleur... ;) and it's only 40 mins from bangor... where i used to live and where ellie does live! :p

[Elfëa]

Yah. Dublin's not far away.

[Gimli the Dwarf]

*Makes a point of looking confused* All these people that apparently die and I heard that it was Percy! :confused: :( I like all of these people! (Could live with no Harry but seriously, it ain't gonna happen) I don't want Percy to die! :( I like the annoying geeky guys. It's a thing I have- to like everyone that no one else likes :)

[Fleurdelacour]

Right! I've decided! The whole JKR's mother's death theory fits in with what could happen.

Erm, 2000 galleons on Mrs Weasley pops her cogs!

[ChianaWeasley]

no not mrs. Weasley, she is Harry's mother figure!!! :eek:
Dont even think that Fleur!:(

[Terry]

I agree, Chiana. Not Mrs. Weasley. How could she even fit into the storyline? It's got to be someone at Hogwarts. Well, I guess we have less than 10 days to wait!!!! Yippeee!

(Still think it's Cho...)

[ChianaWeasley]

That may be a possiblity...but that would most likely come later on in the sixth or seventh book. But we'll just have to wait and see :D

[Fleurdelacour]

I cant remember who posted it, but the theory regarding the lovely ever cuddily Mrs Weasey was to convincing...


I'm betting my lifesavings on Ron and Hermione getting together!

I dont think I could stand it if they dont! I would cry either way! Oh, imagine my Ron and my Hermione!! Aww!!

[ChianaWeasley]

Excellent!!!
Another Ron and Hermione shipper!!!!!
I'd bet all of the Triwizard prize money that they get together.
winks at Fleur
I have my fingers crossed on that one :D

[Fleurdelacour]

Yay! Someone else! :D :hug:

I think I'd literally be sick if it was, say Harry and Hermione... *shudders* its so wrong...

[ChianaWeasley]

nope,nope. Not like the movies where they hinted at Harry and Hermione, who do they think they are leading people on? :rolleyes: I cant wait till Ron and Hermione kiss for the very first time! I swear Im going to cry, I'll be that giggly and happy. Sad i know, Im a hopeless romance junkie...:)

[Fleurdelacour]

Aww! yes! i think I'd actally end up hugging the book (ok, i've actually done thatquite a few times in excitement... )

Then sing at the top on my voice or something! :D :p

Yeah, I'd go crazy! I cried when Hermione went crazy and hugged Ron in PoA!

[ChianaWeasley]

Fleur!!!!!

I love your avatar!:eek:

Its perfect!!! Chiana squeals and giggles

[Pengi]

Where is the bit where Hermione hugs Ron in PoA? Not that I'm getting interested in Ron/Hermione or anything. Nope :p :D

Hmm... I'm thinking it might be Lupin or Sirius, but I'm scared to bet on them unless it comes true. :LOL: So I bet 5000 on Hagrid.

[Fleurdelacour]

Pengi, dont say that about my Remus and Sirius (my first born male child is going to be called Remus! I dont want him to die! ;) )

I got it from this website More Then Friends (http://whole-new-light.com/mtf/index3.html) :)

The bit when Hermione hugs Ron, is when he agrees to help her with Buckbeaks case :) Oh I loove it!

*squeals and giggles too*

Wow! I CANT BLOODY WAIT!!!

I wonder who really dies!!! :jawdrop:

[ChianaWeasley]

So I bet 5000 on Hagrid.

Dont say that Pengi :eek:

Hagrid simply isn't allowed to die!:( I love Hagrid, Hagrid was Harry's real first father figure until Sirius came into the story. But Hagrid isnt allowed to die, and if he does...welll I'll simply throw the book across the room, cry, and never read the book again.

I bet 1,000,000,000 galleons Hagrid doesn't die
:)
Nope, nope
cant die,
nope, nope.

squeals with anticipation

I cant wait to see what happens with ron and Hermione in the next book. I know whats going to run through the back of my head when I start every new chapter will it be in this chapter? When will Ron and Hermione come to their senses? It has to be this chapter. LOL

Im such a R/H shipper
:D

[Aliela]

Hey, I do that too! :D It's gotta be Ron and Hermione, and then Harry and Ginny. Ron is so blind... :rolleyes: he should've asked Hermione first.

[ChianaWeasley]

No, it will never be that way, they are both too stubborn. ron would never have asked her first, and in book five, they are going to be just as stubborn. I think something will happen in the middle of one of their usual arguments :D :p

[Pengi]

Sorry, Chiana. I don't want Hagrid to die either :( But that's my guess because since JK said the death was "horrible to write" I think it's likely to be a main character like him. Just speculating. I hope it isn't. :(

And Fleur, great choice :D I love, love, love the name Remus! I only think it might be one of them that dies because I'm more scared it will be, because I'd be most upset if one of them died. (Does that make sense?) Well, I'd be more upset if, say, Ron died, but I know that's not going to happen.

Thanks for the Ron and Hermione site :) It's sweet :) (Help! I'm being converted!)

[ChianaWeasley]

I know what your saying Pengi, and I really dont want Hagrid to die either. Hard to write....there are so many it could be...it couldn't, no wait, it CANT be Ron or Hermione. I wonder who it will be, but she did say the same thing about book four. and we were all wondering who she would kill off, they said it was an important character. And it was, but I think no matter who it is, she's going to take us by surprise.

Remus is a wonderful name Fleur, I named my hampster Neville :D

[Fleurdelacour]

I need to have lots of kids to give all the names I want to! :p

I'm going to make it tradition to be named after fictional characters... My crazy mother named me Carrie, after Carrie White (my surname also begins with a W...) in the Steven King novel, Carrie... And we all know the ending to THAT! :rolleyes: Demented parents...

Anyway!

Ron and Hermione are safe, for OotP anyway - well so JKR said. If either of them died, I think I'd hold a memorial service... To help me greive... Imagine the rest of the books with out Ron or Hermione? :( :eek:

Yeah you make sense Pengi :)

edit:

I've just found this!!! :jawdrop:


Bookies Have Their Own Odds!! (http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2003270170,00.html)



Make killing on Potter pal

HARRY Potter fans could make a cash killing on who DIES in the new book.

Bookies are taking bets on which character is killed off in Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.

JK Rowling let slip in interviews that one of her best-known characters
could make their last appearance in the novel.

Bookies Blue Square reckon Hagrid, at 7/2, is favourite to die. The book is released in nine days’ time.


The Odds

Hagrid - 7/2 fav
Sirius Black - 4/1
Dumbledore - 5/1
Fred Weasley - 5/1
George Weasley - 5/1
McGonagall - 5/1
Molly Weasley - 6/1
Ginny Weasley - 6/1
Neville - 10/1
Dobby - 10/1
Cho - 12/1
Hermione - 14/1
Ron Weasley - 14/1
Arthur Weasley - 14/1



I dont think I have any idea as to what those odds actually mean! but FRED AND GEORGE 5-1!!!! :(

*breaks down and cries*

It's almost as if Hagrid is going to be killed.... Why do people want Hagrid dead?!

HE IS AN INFLATABLE BOUNCY CASTLE SIDE!!!!

[ChianaWeasley]

Well wait a moment, Rowling said that one of the long characters will make their last appearance in book five. That doesn't mean that someone will be killed. She may have meant that they would leave the plot entirely, fans may have just taken her words the wrong way. At least lets hope we were wrong

[Fleurdelacour]

It's a definate death... She's said she cried whilst writing it... I cried whilst reading that this morning...

This death will not be easy to read.. :(

[Moxie]

Ja, I read that article about her crying over the death as well... I'm guessing that means it's likely not a character she doesn't particularly like (and from interviews and such she definitely seems to prefer some of her creations over others). I won't speculate further, this close to actually finding out who dies - but I am amused by the existence of 'official' odds.

[Colli]

I read that comment too.. really makes me worried. The "spoiler" (true or untrue) someone posted at MuggleNet worries me too.

So at least Snape's safe. ;)

How horrible would it be for me to get to the death JUST as we get to the place we're see Phantom of the Opera on Saturday?


Yeah, I know I said I was bowing out for a few days. Sue me. ;)

[Rivenlas]

I'm worried about who she is going to kill off...I just know I'm going to cry! I'm already upset about it, just wondering...Unless Lockhart comes back and she kills him, I'm going to have troubles! And I work this weekend, and I will have time to read it Saturday and I DON'T want to start crying in front of everyone...shish, let's just change it and keep everyone safe.

*Why is it that it is so much easier to cry about books than movies?

[lithorose]

Why is it that it is so much easier to cry about books than movies? Maybe because books take more time to develop? Because we 'see' into the characters more (usually) and can sympathize? OR maybe because reading is more solitary?

Okay, have been to Mugglenet and have not seen what you guys are talking about. Was it taken off? But don't tell me what it is!

lith crosses fingers Not Sirius Black, not Sirius Black...

[Colli]

Lith, the "spoiler" was posted in one of the comments in comments thingy, which has been disabled. :)

Oy, I'm so weak. I read the NY Daily News spoilers... and I pulled StarGazr down with me. I still don't know who dies (thankfully)... but I know about a ship! Hee hee hee. And don't worry, I won't say anymore.

Thank goodness there are only 36 more hours left.. I'm not sure I can hold out for much longer.

[Pengi]

You know about a ship? Lucky :D Ah, I have to go and find that part in the NY Daily News now... or maybe not, I don't want to find out any other spoilers. I'm getting so worried that's something's going to leak out now that I'm considering just avoiding the internet.

I can't believe it's so close! My brain just can't register that it's tomorrow (well, Saturday midnight... counts as tomorrow :D).

[Fleurdelacour]

Isn't JKr sueing the that New York paper?

I just saw the interview she gave (I'll type a transcript up tonight, I have the time, if anyone wants it) with Jeremy Paxton, and I'm still wetting myself with worry...

I dotn thinkI can hold out any longer either mother. I bet when I comes to it, and I'll open the book on the bus... But I wont turn the page for the first chapter... I'm so scared that my favourite characters will get the chop... I will cry, I have cried...

However, I'm taking off my bid on Ron and Hermione in this book, JKR's reaction to the question was enough to tell me, "Well maybe not in this book... But things will happen, but not now..."

HELP! GOING MAD!!!

[lithorose]

:eek: When did JKR say that, and why isn't it in spoiler mode?;)

[ChianaWeasley]

Oh no!

Im going to be so anxious while I wait for midnight, I try and be first in line. and just snag a book, Im going to be the OoTP gollum saturday morning i just know it....Im so nervous. Who is it going to be? Im so worried it might be Neville, but I CANT be Neville! Neville is becoming an important and constant character in all the books, especially with the news of his parents.

30 hours left by my count, I cannot wait 30 hours!!! That just asking too much of a person ;)

However, I'm taking off my bid on Ron and Hermione in this book, JKR's reaction to the question was enough to tell me, "Well maybe not in this book... But things will happen, but not now..."

NO!!!!!!!!!

I think I'm going to cry now :(

They have to get together!

Wait! Maybe its a set up, maybe it wasn't her in the interview! Its all a conspiracy!

Chiana digs for more proof on her theory

[Amberion]

Originally posted by ChianaWeasley


30 hours left by my count, I cannot wait 30 hours!!! That just asking too much of a person ;)



Actually it just 24 and a half now

hang in there you will make it

[ChianaWeasley]

wait...what is the time differance from the us east coast to australia?

Im so horrible at time difference
:)

[Colli]

:) FleurD, don't bother with the Paxman interview, there's a transcript here (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/3004594.stm). :D

Some bids I can't place because of certain spoilers... but I still say Snape is a vampire. :p (Never gonna give that one up)

Chiana, I wouldn't worry about Neville. It sounds like it's a REALLY important character, and he hasn't really done that much, has he?

28 and a half more hours...

[legolass]

My friend and I talked about it last night, and we both agreed it might be Hagrid :(

It's like what Pengi said - he's an important character that killing him will definitely make an impact.

But I'm hoping it isn't him..... I really am! I like Hagrid! :(

[Rivenlas]

Erg....
First of all, the good thing. I get OotP free, thanks to my mom who collected six coupons for a local store. Yay!
The bad part, though: The store only stays open until midnight, and Harry doesn't come out until 12:01! Maybe I can weedle them into letting me hang out until then and then giving me one, but most likely I will be getting it Saturday morning. I plan on getting up SUPER early and going in, and then reading it until I start work at 9:00 in the morning. Of course, I'm doing a favor for my brother so I am working at one job and heading directly to my other one because I am being kind and filling in his shift. WHY? Maybe I can snatch a few moments at work, though, but still it is antagonizing...I'm going to be late reading it and even later talking with ya'll about it. :( When everyone is going through their fave parts, have a moment of silence for me at work or something. ;)

[ChianaWeasley]

Noooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
:(

It cannot be hagrid, nononononono!!!!

Im still going to bet, in spite of the rumors, that Ron and Hermione are going to get together :D

[Pengi]

I'm betting on Ron and Hermione getting together too. :) When I listened to the interview, it didn't seem like she was being definate either way. If that doesn't happen, I'm having Sirius and Lupin as my backup bet :LOL:

[ChianaWeasley]

I think they loathe one another far too much to ever be together,but hey who knows :)

I still have all of my savings on ron and Hermione, despite what the interview thing said :D

Devote R/H shipper am I

[susanna]

Hi! I'm new here...

Ron and Hermione coming together as a love couple? Definitely yes. Though maybe not in HP5.

A principle character dying: I don't know. I can imagine some principle characters dying in HP7, but not now yet. I think they are all needed.

I am quite sure that none of the principle trio Harry, Ron Hermione will die.

What would we do without Hagrid? What without Dumbledore? What without Snape? The books would be without fun any more...

I definitely have no idea, but if I had to bet I would choose Dumbledore.

[ChianaWeasley]

Hullo Susanna! Welcome to the informer :)
:wave:

[Fleurdelacour]

Did anyone win anything

I'm glad I withdrew my bd on R/H, but we have two more books!!!

[Colli]

.... I can't even look through this thread without bursting into tears. :(

I dunno FleurD.. most of my odds were on people living, not dying, so I might've.

[Fleurdelacour]

Just read through... I think Chiana gets the Galleons, she betted (put in spoiler code, just incase!) that Hagrid WOUDLNT die.

And poor lith... :(

[ChianaWeasley]

Isnt Dead

[susanna]

Is there already the possibility to bet for HP6:

Ginny and Harry will come together - if not in HP6, then in HP7.

[ChianaWeasley]

I guess we can.

I think Harry and Ginny are quite a possibility...scratches her chin

Ron and Hermione, ITS gonna happen!

I wanna see some snoggage people!
:D

[Fleurdelacour]

lol chiana! I giggled manically, like a little girl when Harry and Cho kissed! I never heard any of them say snog before.... And when Sirius said Kreacher was snogging some old robes...

You only heare that word in teenage magazines! lol!

I'm still betting Bill Gate's money on Ron and Hermione getting together.

I should have betted on me crying at every single Ron moment...

[angleet]

I am very VERY carefully not readying anything here as I am only about half-way through. Real life is preventing me from having more than about a couple hours each day for reading :(

So if you're looking for me, expect in a day or so more. Anything I lost, I will of course duly pay up! :p

*whew* I almost hit page down by mistake :eek: - Far too perilous to be here, must leave.

[lithorose]

I hate it when my dreadful feelings are right.:mad::(

edit:
Is snogging a fairly mild term? I was rather confused when I read that part about Kreacher, and I'd rather not elaborate...

[ChianaWeasley]

Kreacher....grr....I dont like that little snot of a house elf!

YAY FLEUR!!!!!

SEE? Im not the only one who is betting everything including the trousers and the kitchen sink!

Like i said in the other thread, I had to do some fanfic reading, just so I had some R/Hr snogging. You know...just till the next book when it happens :D